The End of the Stock Bear Market Rally?

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  • Publicado el 11 ago 2022
  • The stock market has rallied 15% above its June lows. The majority of people are convinced that this is just a bear market rally (dead cat bounce) that would lead to an even greater crash in the coming months.
    In this video, you will learn from past bear markets that when the S&P 500 is able to recover 50% of its bear market decline, it has a very high probability of turning into a new bull market. In this video, you are going to learn the critical price levels to watch to confirm an end to the bear market!
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    Adam Khoo is a professional stock investor and options trader and the best-selling author of 16 books including 'Winning the Game of Stocks" and "Profit from the Panic". Thousands of students have profited from his sharp investment insights into the world of stock market investing and trading.
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Comentarios • 163

  • JSFive
    JSFive Hace un mes +2

    Your videos seem so casual and one may be fooled that they're just entertainment. but they're always full of great informations and insights that they could be mini-courses by themselves. Thank to you Adam!

  • Send a DM on Telegram at marketmeditations1

    While stock prices are volatile, options prices can be even more volatile, which is part of what draws traders to the potential gains from them. Options are generally risky, but some options signals can be relatively low risk and can literally enhance your returns.

  • soulsister
    soulsister Hace un mes

    I really appreciate how you ALWAYS back up all your comments with concrete reasoning. Not only does this educate but it also reduces uncertainty. Thank you! I noticed on each chart that you referenced illustrating that when the market crossed the 50% retracement line after entering a bear market we never retested that low. I also noticed that in each of these cases, the price CROSSED ABOVE the downward trendline, its strongest resistance. Have you noticed that we have just rejected our downward bear market trendline? Although, we have spent 3 days above the 50% retracement, I take this as a sign/lack of strength at this moment.

  • GO Tigers!
    GO Tigers! Hace un mes +12

    The S&P closed at 4280 today 8/12/22. Anxious to see how your analysis aligns with the market. I've been short biased in previous months, but your perspective, along with market trends have changed me to mostly LONG focused day trades. Its been a big help. Thanks!

    • Wong
      Wong Hace un mes +4

      Hallelujah! Don't forget that market does not go up in a straight line. We still have opportunities to buy more when it waves down

  • Conrad
    Conrad Hace un mes +3

    Thank you Adam for your videos! You made a mistake on your GFC calculation. You measured 20.96% instead of 20%. If you had measured 20% correctly the 17th of March would of been the correct date to call a bear market which did end up closing above the 50% retracement from the date followed buy a few new swing lows.

  • Cristian Picco
    Cristian Picco Hace un mes +3

    Adam Thanks 😊. Thanks to you the market is always with me. I took the 1st piranha course last year during the pandemic and after few adjustments I reached 200% income weekly. I want to come to have live courses with you and your team next year . thanks 😊

  • Subhajit Saha
    Subhajit Saha Hace un mes +3

    Awesome session Adam ! Thanks for sharing your huge knowledge.

  • lokesh e
    lokesh e Hace un mes +1

    Thanks Adam for your extensive research on Market and sharing with all market participants. I always learn something new from you .
    Kindly keep doing what you are doing.
    Thanks again

  • Steven Ly
    Steven Ly Hace un mes +4

    Thank you Adam. You always give us a very valuable information.

  • Zuni
    Zuni Hace un mes +3

    Thanks Adam, your technical updates are highly appreciated.

  • lern1079
    lern1079 Hace un mes

    In the 2008 bear market using SPX the top was 10/11/07. It went down 20.25% and made a bottom on 3/17/08. It then rallied 14.58% and closed above the 50% retracement for 3 days in a row before heading back down and to the bear market bottom in 3/6/09 for a 53.70% decline. Just pull up a chart and check.

    • tommygecko
      tommygecko Hace un mes

      nice try. we are talking about the daily closing price not intra day high.
      the 20% decline definition for bear market is also based on daily close as well. You can look it up

  • Diwakar M
    Diwakar M Hace un mes

    Simply brilliant. Kudos to the hard work and diligence. The candle closed above 50% strongly as of 08/13. I expect it to go down to 3916 (23.6%) during September and resume higher up and onwards after September. Time to fill the boots.

  • Apo Bani
    Apo Bani Hace un mes +1

    Thank you Mr. Khoo for sharing your analysis. Thank you as well for sharing your supporting data.
    LOVE it!
    Kudos to you as always

  • mikedok1
    mikedok1 Hace un mes

    It always brings a smile 😊 on my face to hear from you Adam. I always look forward to your updates. This video was superb as always. Please keep em coming, screw the haters. May the markets be with you too.

  • Seven Parr
    Seven Parr Hace un mes +2

    Bears tried to defend it yesterday, what an amazing close over the 50% fib today!
    Along with tons of options flow supporting this move.
    The bottom is in Mr.Khoo LETS GOO!!

  • 05it238
    05it238 Hace un mes +12

    Hi Adam,
    There are a couple of stats that you had shared with us that did not succeed this time. And this is because I follow each and every video 😊
    1) The ultimate bottom indicator using stochastics and Williams %R
    2) Low probability of back to back bear markets. (Your stats showed the average 5 year gap while we had 2 bear markets in just 2 years.)
    Again, this just goes to show that I like your videos and wait for them all the time. But the stat you shared in this video could go wrong.

    • Herns Mil
      Herns Mil Hace un mes +2

      you missed this time bro. Adam always mentioned in his past vids that no one knows where the market is going.

    • Wong
      Wong Hace un mes +1

      It's all about probability, bro. I think Adam has mentioned a few times in his videos that he did not and he was not good at predicting the markets. Anything could happen, but the probability to happen is what he is trying to study and interpret to all of us

    • tommygecko
      tommygecko Hace un mes

      Average is just a statistic, it doesn't mean something will happen every x years if it happens every x years on average. It averages out.

    • Abdul
      Abdul Hace un mes +1

      I've also noticed that the first indicator you mentioned hasn't triggered. I also want to point out that the yield curve is still inverted.

    • Kaye Capital
      Kaye Capital Hace un mes +2

      He’s right 90% of the time. Judge a man by his rights not his wrongs. No one is 100% accurate

  • shashank katta
    shashank katta Hace un mes +1

    I only trade Indian markets . I could see Indian markets closed above 50% retracement. But historically it always closed 50% but made a lower low. Does it indicate an inefficient market?

  • Nisn Ber
    Nisn Ber Hace un mes

    17:40 at the 1980 bear, you didn't adjust the graph to each of the three lows. You measured the first rally high point to the 50% level of the third, and lowest, low.
    Wouldn't have closed above 50% had the 50% level been placed correctly.

  • Chris Damian
    Chris Damian Hace un mes +1

    You were right once again!!! I wish I could afford your course!! Great content!!

  • Sim on Tech
    Sim on Tech Hace un mes

    thanks Adam your a great teacher as always I learn a lot😊

  • Tomasz Antosiewicz
    Tomasz Antosiewicz Hace un mes +5

    What about the middle of 2008? It fell like hell. Looks like today's market to me. You also said that recession starts after some states are in it earlier only then the entire country. Two negative quarters indicate that some states are already in recession.

  • Nice Shot
    Nice Shot Hace un mes +4

    1929 rallied from it's first low, past 50% fib, and went lower. And was in a bear market.

    • tommygecko
      tommygecko Hace un mes +2

      Yup, but hasn't happened since 1950. Never say never but as a logical investor would it be wise to bet on something happening for the first time in over 70 years?

  • Susanna Bruemmer
    Susanna Bruemmer Hace un mes +2

    The biggest mistake you can make when investing is to think that you are smarter than the market. It’s almost impossible to time the consistency, you will miss out on great opportunities if you do this. simply DCA into high conviction stocks and let your position grow.

    • Dow Jones pi
      Dow Jones pi Hace un mes

      @Marek Sýkora Good said. Behave by the knowledge from observation and not giving up to continously learn & relearn. Its all already predetermined there .. just that nobodies discover it yet .. till a certain times come along

    • Marek Sýkora
      Marek Sýkora Hace un mes

      Do you think that somebody who is trying to understand how things work feels like he is "smarter" than that thing? Do you think that Einstein felt that he is smarter than nature? Absolutely not. He just understood the stuff and behaved according his knowledge.

  • Fishphage
    Fishphage Hace un mes +2

    The July CPI YoY was lower not because of a turning of the CPI from June to July but because it is July 2021 is higher than June 2021 as the denominator. So CPI has not turned yet.

  • Jon
    Jon Hace un mes +4

    Awesome video as always. Thanks Adam!

  • Hugo Machado
    Hugo Machado Hace un mes +1

    Great insight ... we learn so much AND especially we get trully excited ... NEVERTHLESS ... the Fibonacci levels you showed only work once you get the real dip ... AND ... this means it doesnt mean anything until we are in 2050 and you do the same exercise LOOKING BACK ... THANK YOU AND LOVE YOUR WORK

  • whirlpool book
    whirlpool book Hace un mes

    This is eyes opening 😍. Thank you for your thesis. Today, 8/13 has passed the 50% level. Waiting for it to be consolidate, hope it is not just a kiss touch

  • mda99das
    mda99das Hace un mes +26

    We have to listen carefully, if 50% retrace and CLOSE above that number we wont go lower than the lows we had this year! We MAY go an retest them...

    • Punk Floyd
      Punk Floyd Hace un mes

      Exactly. It's a fallacy to state that just because we call this a bear market bounce, it doesn't mean that we are absolutely stating that we will have lower lows. It simply means that we could retrace back to the June lows or slightly above them.

    • Grateful 🙏.
      Grateful 🙏. Hace un mes

      It feels like too good to be true kind of thing. With whats going around us im newbie so time will tell it seems stock market works differently. Good luck everyone !!

    • tommygecko
      tommygecko Hace un mes +2

      That's good, more opportunities to load up then.

  • KW.G
    KW.G Hace un mes +2

    we definitely closed above 50% now…

  • Drex Anderson
    Drex Anderson Hace un mes +4

    *Your videos are always the best to receive a notification each time you post a new video.. We'll have regrets for things we did not participate in......Investment should always be on any creative mans heart for success in life.*

  • Alan M. Watson
    Alan M. Watson Hace un mes +3

    These are the only history lessons I can take :)

  • Original G.
    Original G. Hace un mes +4

    You the man bro, thank you for the knowledge

  • Ryan Cole
    Ryan Cole Hace un mes

    I would like to hope your right. However If there is something sinister going on globally, then we should expect the past to be irrelevant as there could be more and more things thrown at us like pandemics/wars etc etc..

  • Stansbury Clarice
    Stansbury Clarice Hace un mes

    Nobody can become financially successful over night. They put in background work but we tend to see the finished part. Fear is a dangerous component, hindering us from taking bold steps we need in other to reach our goals

  • Edlina Azmeer
    Edlina Azmeer Hace un mes +1

    Thank you so much for the sharing Adam.

  • alvar pallas
    alvar pallas Hace un mes +2

    But it went down from 1575 to 1250 and then back up 50 procent and then straight down.

  • manpreet singh
    manpreet singh Hace un mes +1

    Thanks for your video. It's always helpful.

  • Srin M
    Srin M Hace un mes +6

    Thank you Adam. Your analysis/research and the narrative that you show on your videos are just amazing. Basis your analysis, i just did the back testing for all the bear markers that India experienced (plotted it on charts from 1992 Iraq War) - we have had at least 9- instances of bear markets (over 20% fall from highs) - in 1992, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2014, 2020 and 2022). Your analysis when applied on all these bear markets turned out to be indeed true. For the current bear market in India, our NIFTY 50 closed above the 50% mark on the FIBRet charts (during the week of 25th July) and is now heading towards 78.6% on the charts. Considering these past charts, markets are highly unlikely to make new lows.
    One request Adam, sure there are many new subscribers to your YT channel who missed the past opportunities of buying on dips (March throughJune of this year). Given that we are now in the beginning of the rally in August, appreciate if you can make a video for those who are looking to make an entry at the current stage, the message for them, what to look for or track etc. This will greatly help and enable us to make a late entry but a well informed entry.
    While i have watched many of your videos in recent 6-8 weeks, i never made an effort to acknowledge and thank how much of insights we get from your videos. Thank you so very much Adam and may you and your family stay healthy, wealthy and cheerful all the time.

    • arnisdaddy
      arnisdaddy Hace un mes +1

      "Given that we are now in the beginning of the rally in August, appreciate if you can make a video for those who are looking to make an entry at the current stage, the message for them, what to look for or track etc. This will greatly help and enable us to make a late entry but a well informed entry."
      My best advice for anyone in the category you mentioned above is: Go to the Piranha Profits web site and buy into Adam's "Whale Investor" course and/or his "Profit Snapper" course. I am a student of Adams since 2020 and have made huge returns since then. So, needless to say I recommend his courses whole-heartedly. I am NOT affiliated with Adam Khoo and/or Piranha Profits except as a student. Buying into stocks right now is bound to be a "hit or miss" strategy unless you KNOW how to pick the best companies at the best prices and knowing their true "Intrinsic value." Evaluating companies is exactly what Adam teaches in the Whale course. You will not be disappointed IF you follow the course and DO YOUR DUE DILIGENCE in researching GREAT COMPANIES! Again, I am not affiliated with Adam or Piranha Profits and they do not know I am writing this reply. I simply believe that trying to take shortcuts with your investment capital and trying to succeed from watching short videos of ESclips is dangerous. The courses are WELL WORTH their cost and time spend learning. Not to mention that when you finish the course(s) you can become a member of their Telegram group that reinforces the lessons and provides new Investment/Trade ideas on a weekly and monthly basis. Good Luck!

  • Sebassjoli 2 Londres
    Sebassjoli 2 Londres Hace un mes +4

    For the first I disagree with you... Stock & crypto will drop sooo HARD

  • zariah williams
    zariah williams Hace un mes

    Very well explained my brother love the content

  • Kayung Caleb Lai
    Kayung Caleb Lai Hace un mes +1

    Just sold some more stocks into this bear market rally. Very overbought at the moment, it'll go back down just be patient.

  • babycutezz
    babycutezz Hace un mes

    Does that 50% retracement "to end bear market" rule also apply to Nasdaq and Small caps? SPY just closed above 427 today, but not QQQ and IWM. Thanks

    • tommygecko
      tommygecko Hace un mes

      This does not define the end the bear market. Adam mentioned 2 criteria for the end of the bear market and both are still some way away from materializing. All he mentioned was there is a very high probability, after a 50% retracement, that we have bottomed. The stock market could go sideway for months or years without forming a lower low and we would still be in a bear market.

  • Ad Blommestein
    Ad Blommestein Hace un mes +1

    Thank you master Adam. 🙏

  • Teri Tang Hansen
    Teri Tang Hansen Hace un mes +2

    The only investment video I watching on ESclips, Master Adam.

  • Phantom Knight
    Phantom Knight Hace un mes +13

    The 50% analysis of the peak in October 2007 and the low of March 2009 is what we call cherry-picking data. The 50% analysis should be for the peak in October 2007 and February 2008 or April 2008, and then looking at the mid-May 2008 peak, you will actually see that we went over 50% but STILL FAILED. That means if we go over 4300 and hold for a month or six months, we can still repeat history and tank far, far lower, just as we did in March 2009. Remember, we can pick various points in a historical chart draw patterns that fit our thesis. Adam did so by ignoring my data points and went straight for March 2009

    • wwwy2000
      wwwy2000 Hace un mes

      I think he is cherry picking for a reason. The worst of the 2008-2009 market downturn began after September 13th 2008 when big banks and institutions were failing left and right in a matter of a week, when it felt the world was about to end. Up until that point it had only been a typical market downturn. The point is that such events do not happen often.

    • tommygecko
      tommygecko Hace un mes +2

      @Andy Y. stay out of the markets for 5 years then 🤣

    • tommygecko
      tommygecko Hace un mes

      @KW.G he accuses others of cherry-picking data but he himself is manipulating Adam's words 🤔

    • KW.G
      KW.G Hace un mes +2

      i looked at the chart… we’re talking about peak to the low.. in fact after 50% retrace we did not test any new low. I’m not sure which part you’re saying??

  • Aero
    Aero Hace un mes +4

    We closed above the 50% retracement level today

  • Thien
    Thien Hace un mes +1

    I love it when youtubers call the bear market was over.

  • tolikfox007
    tolikfox007 Hace un mes

    Am i the only one who hopes this bear market last longer? I need more time to stack!

  • Anatoly
    Anatoly Hace un mes +3

    Thanks Adam great content, would it be possible to cover Chinese stocks again especially Baba, kweb ...?

  • Robin S
    Robin S Hace un mes +1

    Breached the 50% retracement on the 15th Aug 22❗️

  • Stone MDR MDR
    Stone MDR MDR Hace un mes +1

    Amazing research and thank you Adam….

  • Boon Kiat Tey
    Boon Kiat Tey Hace un mes +1

    it tooks few years to return to previous high during dot com burst 😅

  • Pradeep Modi
    Pradeep Modi Hace un mes

    You are a great Analyst, sir

  • THE HUNGER GAMES  8
    THE HUNGER GAMES 8 Hace un mes +1

    Thank you Sir 🤠

  • Nice Shot
    Nice Shot Hace un mes +1

    1973 the SPX closed above 50% fib. on it's first bear market rally and went lower.

    • Nice Shot
      Nice Shot Hace un mes

      I'm wrong. Wasn't in a bear market.

  • Subhasish Ray
    Subhasish Ray Hace un mes +1

    Ofcourse u r right. Ofcourse the bear mkt.is over with the completion tion of the ABC correction. Ofcourse the bulls are back in full force. Ofcourse great opportunities are again available in market. Cheers.

  • William Read
    William Read Hace un mes

    I can sense Adam getting suspicious of a drop 📉🙉

  • James
    James Hace un mes +1

    50% retracement completed....on my birthday, can yall believe that? Crazy man.

  • S Lee
    S Lee Hace un mes +1

    Great analysis. Thxs!😁

  • Muhammad Haris
    Muhammad Haris Hace un mes

    Superb analysis!!! 👏👏👏

  • Xiang Yang
    Xiang Yang Hace un mes +1

    Adam would u say the market closed above 50% Fib Retracement today (12 Aug)?

  • Patrick Gilbert
    Patrick Gilbert Hace un mes +2

    Success Depends on the action or step you take to achieve it. Show me a man who has no investments and I'll tell you how soon he'll be broke. Investment is to build a safe paradise for the Future..

  • hktmc300
    hktmc300 Hace un mes +2

    SPY closed at 4280 today. Time to go long.

  • Herns Mil
    Herns Mil Hace un mes +1

    I used to subscribe with The traveling trader channel. He knows relatively well. But full of bad news topics. At least , when you talk bad news, give viewers a way out or an option what to do at least. Unlike Adam, he discussed bad news in his previous vids and provide a positive outlook. For the "Traveling Trader channel", well I unsubscribed to his channel.

  • Teenacious7
    Teenacious7 Hace un mes

    i would like to see an analysis for china stocks too not only the ones your predictions seems accurate ^_^

  • Kunverji Hirani
    Kunverji Hirani Hace un mes +1

    Brilliant useful video 👍🙏

  • Leonard Parker
    Leonard Parker Hace un mes +1

    Market just closed a minute ago at 4270

  • Stephen Cho
    Stephen Cho Hace un mes

    The markets will keep pumping and gas will be going lower until the midterms

  • IRON H34RT221
    IRON H34RT221 Hace un mes +2

    Please talk about the ongoing situation in China, Adam. Your insight would be helpful to those of us invested in China stocks.

  • Amirul Haizad
    Amirul Haizad Hace un mes

    listening to this video is very beneficial. insightful video.

  • L.F.S.
    L.F.S. Hace un mes +1

    Great video! Statistics are facts! Other youtubers just speculate! You show real data!! 100000 Thanks!!

  • Yuliana Wijaya
    Yuliana Wijaya Hace un mes

    Thanks Adam🙏

  • Bryan Kum
    Bryan Kum Hace un mes

    4280 closed last night, means progressive bull run?

  • imeldo marcos
    imeldo marcos Hace un mes

    I am actually doing long trades. Didnt materialize. Just sideways.

  • THE HUNGER GAMES  8
    THE HUNGER GAMES 8 Hace un mes +1

    The DAX 40 🇩🇪 is a great opportunity ☝️🧙‍♀️

  • LifeStartsAt7000rpm
    LifeStartsAt7000rpm Hace un mes +2

    17:45 seems to me the 61.8% fibo instead of the 50%?

    • Hamus Yaigh
      Hamus Yaigh Hace un mes +1

      Yes, Adam seems to be showing the wrong Fib range. If you actually plot the Fib range from high to low on daily (26/11/80>28/09/81) then the 50% is just breached on bear market rally like he says on 30/11/81 and also again 4/12/81 at close. As its only two separated days and the other closes are below 50% his explanation still holds true I think.

    • tesla_dave
      tesla_dave Hace un mes +1

      yeah i noticed that too. he probabaly missed a slide. you can't draw fib to the future (past the first drop) because it hasn't happened yet. but if you draw the fib yourself to the first dip, and then extend it out, it did indeed close just below 50% fib

  • Prince Rent
    Prince Rent Hace un mes +1

    Now with the recent economy, To get financial freedom you have to be making money while you're asleep

  • Gina yang
    Gina yang Hace un mes

    Thanks to you !!

  • Tan Ping Ann
    Tan Ping Ann Hace un mes

    Dear Adam, what is the indicator you use to analyse the 50% mark? I can't find it from PEOM. Hope you can let us know. Thanks

  • Free Webb
    Free Webb Hace un mes

    The close happened today over the 50% Fib level, but isn’t the weekly candle stick a Hanging man???

  • The1shotcallaz
    The1shotcallaz Hace un mes

    Excellent teaching

  • Rookie Maquillage
    Rookie Maquillage Hace un mes

    I was worrying if I should invest big now because the bull arrived or wait because now is just a rally. I learned so much from this video.

    • Swipe650
      Swipe650 Hace un mes

      You should have been DCAing and mid June was the time to invest big

  • Ganesha's Magic
    Ganesha's Magic Hace un mes

    Excellent great analysis n charts

  • Emperial X
    Emperial X Hace un mes

    Please do analysis of Indian stock markets! Eg. Nifty 50, BankNifty & sensex...

  • kostas skoulas
    kostas skoulas Hace un mes +1

    Many thanks Adam,

  • Super Savage Spirit
    Super Savage Spirit Hace un mes +1

    Like another commenter I would like to hear your thoughts on china taiwan and it's future over the next few years

  • Yia Thao
    Yia Thao Hace un mes

    nice.. your knowledge is high respected.. thanks.

  • Robert Albert
    Robert Albert Hace un mes

    What website do you use for your charts?

  • Rick rick
    Rick rick Hace un mes

    You are still the best 👍

  • Chris Barnes
    Chris Barnes Hace un mes

    you prove this in the last bear once it pass 50 percent and it never went back

  • Amarachukwu Sunday
    Amarachukwu Sunday Hace un mes

    Great but please my Trade stay up to days in red before finally going in my direction, is it normal..I use the 4hour chart... please what do you have to say about it

  • mda99das
    mda99das Hace un mes +9

    I want to see more drops, more buying opportunity.

  • Sergio H.
    Sergio H. Hace un mes +1

    Thank adam

  • rambo321
    rambo321 Hace un mes

    LETS GO!

  • Arafath Shubha
    Arafath Shubha Hace un mes +2

    We did it.

  • Deevog
    Deevog Hace un mes

    Market can not bottom without Vix 40+ , 2022 is the year with 40 years high inflation and inflation can be cool if rate hike above the inflation rate, otherwise it's sticky, this rally on Hope only

  • Thạch Trần Văn
    Thạch Trần Văn Hace un mes

    Adam u right, today it close above and we in the bull market now haleluya

  • Edwin Han
    Edwin Han Hace un mes

    So S&P is above 4227 today! But how about NASDAQ?? it's not above 50% yet?? are we in bull market still? Thks

  • J Phone
    J Phone Hace un mes

    I'm a bull but I work in trucking and man things are slow

  • Garry
    Garry Hace un mes

    the best vid about us market out there