Stock Market Crash or Rally Incoming?

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  • Publicado el 19 sep 2022
  • The stock market has historically bottomed in September and staged a year-end rally during mid-term election years. Can we expect the same scenario to play out this year or is the market heading for a bigger crash in the last quarter?
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Comentarios • 298

  • Craig mertz
    Craig mertz Hace 10 días +13

    I'm 58 and my wife and I are VERY worried about our future, gas and food prices rising daily. We have had our savings dwindle with the cost of living into the stratosphere, we are finding it impossible to replace it. We can get by, but cant seem to get ahead. My condolences to anyone retiring in this crisis, 40years nonstop just for a crooked system to take all you worked for

  • Melody Messer
    Melody Messer Hace 10 días +4

    Adam, thank you! I so appreciate your hard work showing us the historical data. I have been following you two years now and have taken two courses so far. Your insights keep me level-headed.

  • Damian Ng
    Damian Ng Hace 10 días +36

    Your videos are always very balanced and informative. Thank you Adam for sharing your insights.

    • Nathan Bergey
      Nathan Bergey Hace 8 días

      His videos are almost entirely bullish. While he buys puts and is able to pivot quickly to short the market as a trader, the average investor needs to understand the significant risk in this market. The downside risk doesn't outweigh the upside potential. Take a look at Peter Schiff and RightSideOfTheChart to balance out some of Adam's views

  • Juergen Lilien
    Juergen Lilien Hace 7 días +1

    21:58 Yes, but the 2020 Rally was with the help of the FED and now the FED does exactly the opposite.
    And this time it could be a very long run before we see more than another bear market rally. Remember, if you bought e. g. the NASDAQ around 2000, you had to wait around 10 years before you got your money back.

  • JJ King
    JJ King Hace 10 días +5

    Thank Adam! Always be with you, even if the market don’t goes up end of the year! You are the greatest investor ever, you have my respect!

  • WhatDoYouThink
    WhatDoYouThink Hace 9 días

    Hi Adam loved the video as always. Question for you: Biden is now depleting US oil reserves to keep gas prices down for the mid terms. They are at 40 year lows right now. After mid terms he will likely start buying back causing oil prices to start rising again. What do you think of this issue and it's potential impact on inflation and the stock market?

  • Tomáš Tačev
    Tomáš Tačev Hace 10 días +10

    Hello Adam, don’t you think that we can go lower not because rising inflation but because of lower earnings of all companies as people spend less ?

  • MC
    MC Hace 10 días +4

    Thank you Adam for your insights. It’s very helpful and valuable to help everyone. Really appreciate it

  • Merouane S
    Merouane S Hace 7 días

    Adam thanks for your great content. This time is going to be different because this mechanic worked for a century and now it's time to redistribute the cards and find a new scheme

  • Jigs
    Jigs Hace 10 días

    Thanks Adam for your informative video. Do you think we are in a unique economic environment where it may not follow whatever has happened in the history ? By the time inflation comes down I feel lot of damage will already have been done

  • Andrew Lyberopoulos
    Andrew Lyberopoulos Hace 8 días +2

    no rally this year. SPX has lower projections and time cycles pointed hard down into mid next year. Technical picture and pattern of trend is clearly down and not done yet. For a sizeable rally to mount market will need a capitulation move down first which will most likely happen in the weeks ahead to trigger margin calls, take out all the stops and wash out the sellers

    • Outback Enduro
      Outback Enduro Hace 8 días

      Yes this how the market really works to manipulate and create liquidity

  • Sriram Krishna
    Sriram Krishna Hace 10 días +4

    Thanks for sharing your opinion. However what’s a factor that leads to a rally? There aren’t any. With Fed QT, inflation being stubborn, Imminent EU energy problems, war and all put together tells us, we will be either sideways or some more pain ahead in terms of price action. If we are talking about 6 months - 1 year horizon and past, yes market will recover but short term it looks very unlikely. In my humble opinion, it’s better to DCA into good companies if investing long term, if it’s short term, there is no clear crystal balls and none of the patterns/past indicators work due to current economic conditions. Thanks again. Appreciate your content as always!

  • Chris Johnson
    Chris Johnson Hace 10 días

    While I agree with Adam, more emphasis needs to be put on your personal timeframe. If you have a timeframe longer than 10 years, then everything he says is true. If you are closer to retirement or needing the cash in the near term, massive drawdowns are a very real risk. There's a real chance that the market is flat for a decade, with massive swings along the way.

  • Td Airoil
    Td Airoil Hace 9 días

    Adam once again you post an amazing very informative video. I was actually debating liquidating my stocks and today I am glad I didn't. I believe you need to be invested to have skin in the game. I like you believe that success in investing is investing in good companies. Thanks again. Looking forward to the next video.

  • Charles Charles
    Charles Charles Hace 4 días

    Hi Adam. Juxtaposing those CPI release dates on the S&P over such a long period of time is not easy to do. Kudos to your diligence - can you share where are your sources of data and how to get it done quickly?

  • Hasitha Gunasekera
    Hasitha Gunasekera Hace 8 días +2

    Hi Adam, Fantastic analysis. I am looking at taking one of your course. Thank you

  • CK YEAP
    CK YEAP Hace 10 días +1

    Very well said and thanks for your insights Adam... I love your fact finding and knowledge

  • Abdul
    Abdul Hace 9 días +1

    Thanks Adam. You haven't touched on the inverted yield curve in a while. The yields have been inverted for quite some time now and are leading indicators for recessions. What does that mean for the stock market?

  • WILLIAM DAVIS
    WILLIAM DAVIS Hace 7 días

    I’m confident the current market has an equal possibility of making high-value gains or losses, so I'm cautious with my selections; but, I heard that a trader made over $250k in this recession influenced market, and I could really need ideas on how to achieve similar profits.

  • Peter Duarte
    Peter Duarte Hace 9 días +1

    Always appreciate Adam's optimism.

  • Mr Cav
    Mr Cav Hace 10 días +4

    The stock market went up may times while rates were rising you said. That's because they almost always raise rates into an overheating economy, this time is the exception since they are raising them into a weakening economy. Huge difference.

    • Outback Enduro
      Outback Enduro Hace 8 días

      Yes this is the difference no one seems to reference ... it's diff this time!

  • Sharavana Rao
    Sharavana Rao Hace 8 días +1

    Fantastic analysis as always! Thank you Adam!

  • Cody Stephenson
    Cody Stephenson Hace 10 días +4

    Thanks for making these updates. Respect your opinions greatly

  • Emina Lopatyuk
    Emina Lopatyuk Hace 8 días

    What an analysis! Thank you so much, Adam.

  • Ricddd
    Ricddd Hace 9 días

    One doubt:
    regarding the topic about "staying in the market", is it not the first rule to preserve your capital (in view of probability of losses)?

  • Rachh
    Rachh Hace 9 días

    Always grateful for your analysis. Thanks Adam!

  • Jai
    Jai Hace 10 días +2

    A-grade content. Always look forward to these.

  • Quoc Khanh Trinh NGUYEN

    Thanks so much for an informative and as always, very positive and entertaining video.

  • Alireza Jabbari
    Alireza Jabbari Hace 7 días

    I want to say just thank you for the informative content!

  • Caring Canine
    Caring Canine Hace 10 días +16

    Dear Adam, about half a year ago, you made a video saying Adbe had fallen to the bottom trend line that dated back to many many years, and you were very sure about that it was a good time to buy . You also strongly recommended CRM in the same video. I didn't buy any CRM because I thought may be too expensive and I could never understand the numerous adjustments on its balance sheet on every single earning period. But
    I bought ADBE--both as a trade and a long-term investment. The trade soon hit the stop loss you had suggested. But I am still holding onto the investmemt. But the value has dropped more than 30%. On top of earnings not being that great, the buy out of Figma seems to be the main cause.
    Could you analyze if the fundamentals of Adbe has changed? Should I still hold onto ADBE or sell it all because of the Figma buyout?
    Thank you so much.

    • Caring Canine
      Caring Canine Hace 6 días

      @Timothy Odaniell It is paying the price equivalent to P/S 50 to buy Sigma which has no earning. That is very expensive. Adbe's own PS ratio is under 8. So the deal may make Adbe too expensive or short of cash flow. I don't know. Let Adam do the intrinsic value and analyze it, so we can get some insight.

    • Timothy Odaniell
      Timothy Odaniell Hace 8 días +1

      Personally, I believe that this is a good time to buy ADBE given the recent fear based dramatic downturn. Yes, it could go lower, and after going long on the stock as of today (09/21/2022) which marks its lowest point in a long time, almost now equaling the historic covid-sickness lows of March 2020. And if it continues to go lower, I will continue to buy the upcoming dips and dollar cost average until I reap the tremendous rewards predictable in the coming years ahead. I am taking advantage of what I believe is an unwarranted fear-based sell off opportunity.

    • Roland van Vliet
      Roland van Vliet Hace 9 días +1

      @Jason F C By my knowledge Adam does not advise on any stocks, he just explained why he considered Adobe a strong company based on their fundementals. Nobody can predict acquisitions like the Figma one, so if that caused the drop mainly and the rest is just market sentiment, Adam has nothing to commit. Btw I also picked up some Adobe, but I will never blame others for my own decisions

    • Lim hong yann
      Lim hong yann Hace 9 días

      Long terms bullish

    • arimpact
      arimpact Hace 9 días

      You know he’s going to ignore this right? Take your listen how you need to.

  • Felix
    Felix  Hace 9 días +1

    So far in the past few months I’ve slowed down buying to only maybe an IPO or something I already own that has been overly beaten down. Only money I’m consistently putting into the market are through my financial advisor.

  • Jignesh Bhatt
    Jignesh Bhatt Hace 10 días

    Dear Adam, thank you very much for such an in-depth and informative analysis. Regards. - Prof. Jignesh G. Bhatt, INDIA.

    • Pavan Siddharth
      Pavan Siddharth Hace 7 días

      sir,will nifty fall now or can we hold our positions?

  • Dheeraj Shahdadpuri
    Dheeraj Shahdadpuri Hace 10 días +1

    You are the best market observer. Thanks for making such informative videos.

  • A Ali
    A Ali Hace 10 días

    Brilliant and based on facts. Thank you for your hard work and sharing such insightful info. A Gem in a sea of useless and pointless info on the net.

  • Herns Mil
    Herns Mil Hace 9 días +3

    This is the only investing channel on ESclips that I can sit down and watch from start to finish. No matter how long it is!

  • Tjahjadi Aldo
    Tjahjadi Aldo Hace 9 días

    good companies always recover, however investor's return is a function of time. the longer you wait, the poorer the return.

  • David Luong
    David Luong Hace 9 días

    Truly love your video updates, keep up the good work!

  • Ashkan Izadpanah
    Ashkan Izadpanah Hace 9 días

    Thanks Adam for your videos. I learn a lot from your videos. Even though, I think you are a bit too optimistic about the next rally.

  • King Khan
    King Khan Hace 9 días

    Watched your video for the first time, you have literally went right through fed,fedex and inflation. Respect

  • Itay Even-Hen
    Itay Even-Hen Hace 10 días +1

    I love and enjoy your analysis! Thank you!

  • Mistah Nic
    Mistah Nic Hace 7 días

    This is very valuable insight. Thank you Adam!

  • Pepa sela
    Pepa sela Hace 7 días

    Great analysis of technicals, however main factor now are the news such as loss of jobs in tech, mobilization of Russian troops to Ukraine and the fall of the euro and pound that will decrease imports.. downfall in inflation won't be enough, it's necessary to end the energy crisis where at the moment there is not a single evidence on how it could be resolved ..

  • DAVID ALEGRE
    DAVID ALEGRE Hace 10 días

    Love these videos. Thank you Adam !!!!

  • Sheshu Kurma
    Sheshu Kurma Hace 10 días +1

    Thank you Adam.
    You are the right person for me.

  • YX
    YX Hace 10 días

    You are a gem Adam. Thank you.

  • Stone MDR MDR
    Stone MDR MDR Hace 9 días

    As always….to the point, thank you Sir

  • The DAILY Games
    The DAILY Games Hace 10 días +2

    Thanks again Adam, the charts pattern that you presented means a lots to me. Cheers!

  • Farrell Kay
    Farrell Kay Hace 8 días

    Thanks, I regret listening to people end of 2020 when everyone was saying its gonna drop more when it only shot up and i had taken everything out of my 401k, not out but moved it in stable funds. Now its back to where it was and I'm just gonna move everything back. Whether it dumps more, it will go back up.

  • MIT Racing
    MIT Racing Hace 10 días +11

    Adam, I am really curious about your view on Adobe stock after the Figma deal. Can you please share this? Also, thank you for this video!

    • Justin Werner
      Justin Werner Hace 10 días

      Finally got back in ADBE for $316/share for long term portfolio.

  • Geremy Gieryna
    Geremy Gieryna Hace 10 días

    Love your videos, but rent is coming down? I'd like to see proof of that, I believe it to be the opposite
    Also, housing prices are coming down, but the mortgage is still the same, if not higher with these interest rates rising. I don't see inflation as peaking just yet. Possible, guess we'll see in time.
    Thanks for your vids Adam!

    • Outback Enduro
      Outback Enduro Hace 8 días

      I also wondered where that fact came from: Rent coming down??

  • Mark Bronti
    Mark Bronti Hace 10 días

    I love adams contrarian thoughts/analysis with stats backup..will be interesting to see what happens this next few months

  • Chris Gordyn
    Chris Gordyn Hace 10 días +7

    What about quantitative tightening? Would be great to hear your analysis of how QT and QE affect markets.

  • Belford Chang
    Belford Chang Hace 10 días

    Looking at Fed Rate vs S&P chart, it seems positive correlation, however, what was the subsequent impact to the market after the rate hike reaching the peak?

  • Raju Shaha
    Raju Shaha Hace 7 días

    Thank you sir for this very valuable information

  • Time Zones
    Time Zones Hace 8 días

    A crash and bullish market offers equal high-yield potential, it is all about early facts and the proper strategy, I've viewed people that netted 7figure positive aspects amidst crash,
    and pull it off as without problems in a bull market. Unequivocally the crash/recession is getting any individual someplace rich.

  • Shariq Ashfaq
    Shariq Ashfaq Hace 10 días +1

    It'll be interesting to see what's now current sentiment for ADBE & NVDA is?
    ADBE was heavily pumped by you/boosted on several past videos and even though their fundamentals are still holding, pretty much 75% of analyst community has cut down their outlooks on it.
    I am still adding to my positions but would like to listen/view your POV.

  • Providencez
    Providencez Hace 10 días +1

    Stocks most likely to drop another 20% is not because people are ultra bearish. Yea it could affect the equity price due to retail investors not buying as much or went short but main reason is QT. Which causes lack of liquity and also fed will be reducing positions... with inflation getting stickier and bond yields are having much better returns people are shifting to bonds...

  • Aaron Foreman Fishing
    Aaron Foreman Fishing Hace 8 días

    Thank you Adam. Your the man.

  • Juper CP
    Juper CP Hace 9 días

    thank you adam khoo you are the best at what you do!

  • 李善 -Robert Ri
    李善 -Robert Ri Hace 10 días +1

    Super valuable information. Thank you so much 🙏 Mr.Khoo

  • James Owings
    James Owings Hace 6 días

    This is a great time to invest. The market collapsing is always a great time invest. Now if I can get my $30,000 invested in the right places is another thing

  • Marc Sew
    Marc Sew Hace 9 días

    Hi Adam , when u compare XLY again the broader S&P, and try to show the divergence betw the two: the main reason why XLY is holding up better relatively because the 2 largest stock component in XLY is AMZN and TSLA. Both of them constituted abt 44% of XLE, and they are doing much better (or drop lesser) as compared to other stocks in the overall markets.

  • Ricddd
    Ricddd Hace 9 días

    Outstanding, as always.
    I am glad to be your student.

  • acpanda
    acpanda Hace 10 días +38

    Adam is always the light in the tunnel.

    • typing...
      typing... Hace 9 días

      Ya problem is Adam has always been bullish it's easy to always be bullish that is the easy thing to do it's harder to analyze and know when to step out. Even in an almost nuclear situation Adam is bullish lol. But I like and respect Adam he is still one of the best analyst

    • Lazy Bears
      Lazy Bears Hace 10 días

      It means u dont have a layout plan.

    • How Kam Chiong
      How Kam Chiong Hace 10 días

      Eventually you can see the light in the tunnel one day

    • Marc
      Marc Hace 10 días

      Pretty broken light then 🥹

    • Ikechukwu Chidi
      Ikechukwu Chidi Hace 10 días

      Eventually the uptrend is gon come though......but things need to get better or at the very least....inflation concerns needs to get better....the high rates ain't helping

  • 미국주식의 모든것 - 미주모

    Adam fails to address real valuation adjustment with the increase of interest rate. you cannot compare to last 10 year p/e, that is worst analysis possible since we have been on pretty much 0 interest rate for past 15 years until recently. Stocks will likely go down more. It is ok to be mostly on cash -sideline and do small buys right now

  • ⛔️TAP MY PROFILE TO MEET ME AND MORE⛔️

    *49:23*
    *I'm honestly impressed by the time and effort you put into these videos, Keep it up!*
    😄

  • MrJasionis
    MrJasionis Hace 10 días

    Leading indicator that Adam Khoo is the best is his calmness ! Thank you.

  • John Smith
    John Smith Hace 10 días +4

    Having different streams of income is the best thing to do especially with the current economic situations

    • Aguilar Kristine
      Aguilar Kristine Hace 10 días +1

      With the way things are moving ,I think I need to see a video on “how to survive amidst the present recession “.I mean everything in shambles
      Surprisingly I heard people still make over a 100k within a few months ,and i’d like to know how and if it’s still possible in these times or am I being lazy

  • Ryan Lin
    Ryan Lin Hace 7 días

    Adam, I think this time you may be wrong. Market could be bearish for next two to three years with recession and will definitely rally back up after that.

  • LKMB
    LKMB Hace 10 días

    All very true, thanks for the excellent content!

  • NL
    NL Hace 9 días

    More and more stocks are making 52-week lows in the latest drop. The market will go back up but not before seeing real capitulation of this bear market.

  • E C
    E C Hace 10 días

    Awesome analysis as usual!

  • Lama Sherif
    Lama Sherif Hace 10 días +4

    Was waiting for your analysis! Thank you for the video!

  • Malibu Jamie
    Malibu Jamie Hace 9 días

    I’m gonna go ahead and say mini rally. The S&P has been sliding down the bottom side of the boll bands and really needs a bounce before going lower. ↗️

  • Winston L
    Winston L Hace 10 días

    A lot of people also thought Tesla is just a car business, when it’s a conglomerate of businesses (more potential than Amazon).

  • Frank
    Frank Hace 10 días +1

    Great analysis. Thank you very much!

  • david xu
    david xu Hace 10 días

    Thank you keeping us updated

  • MyContestPix
    MyContestPix Hace 9 días

    Wed Sept 21st is the test. If the Fed raises FFR rates by .75 that will ease the markets until Oct 7th when they release the Unemployment report.
    If the Fed raises it by 1.00%, head for the hills as massive selling will ensue!!!

    • NL
      NL Hace 8 días

      Even 75 basis point hike rattled the market today.

  • Shuxrat
    Shuxrat Hace 9 días

    Fantastic insights, Adam.

  • Ginvest
    Ginvest Hace 10 días

    Thank you for the excellent analysis

  • Daniel Piche
    Daniel Piche Hace 9 días

    To combat inflation, everything needs come down meaning everybody needs to have less to spend, harder to borrow money and increase of jobless claims, that mean recession of course ! That is the objective, better than inflation unfortunatly. .... patient my dear.... relax everything will be forgotten in ten years, ( not so sure about that one !)

  • mikedok1
    mikedok1 Hace 9 días

    Glad to see you, Adam.

  • Sam Law
    Sam Law Hace 9 días

    Keep it up ! Adam 👍🏻💪🏼

  • Luke Angell
    Luke Angell Hace 10 días +3

    With the way things are moving ,I think I need to see a video on “how to survive amidst the present recession “.I mean everything in shambles
    Surprisingly I heard people still make over a 100k within a few months ,and i’d like to know how and if it’s still possible in these times or am I being lazy

    • Outback Enduro
      Outback Enduro Hace 8 días

      They were shorting the moves higher, they weren't blinded by whats happening right in front of them on their screens.

  • Landis K
    Landis K Hace 10 días

    You are the best mentor I have seen by far.

  • Juergen Lilien
    Juergen Lilien Hace 7 días +2

    A possible Bear trap in a Bear market? Crazy times … 😉

  • Indian
    Indian Hace 10 días +1

    Thanks Adam , you are a great support

  • Ginvest
    Ginvest Hace 10 días

    I owned fedex for a long time (at a loss), sold it as soon as it back to my purchase price. It’s dividend return is low and it does not perform. Bad stock to own.

  • Albert Insinger
    Albert Insinger Hace 10 días +5

    Maybe Bear market rally likely. Nothing goes down in a straight line. Fed not done raising. Bear market is only over when the Fed is done raising rates. I expect that to be sometime mid 2023. I expect the S&P 500 to be somewhere between 3000-3400 then. So more down side in the cards. Unless you are a trader. Wait to buy.

    • Outback Enduro
      Outback Enduro Hace 8 días

      @Salman Hussain He is 100% right ! You on the other hand must be sweating adding to your losing positions. Please stop averaging in it is against all trading rules BUT only in this market ... it worked before but the story IS very different this time.

    • Salman Hussain
      Salman Hussain Hace 10 días

      wow , is ur crystall ball for sell , knowing all this , u should be multi millionaire by now and not waste time on youtube

  • Playz guy
    Playz guy Hace 9 días +1

    I like Adam’s positivity

  • Anthony Ong
    Anthony Ong Hace 10 días +1

    Hi Adam, regard good or bad market, as long as invest in whatever index . In the long run, it will profit?

  • TradingLounge
    TradingLounge Hace 7 días +2

    due you have been around long enough to know there is another leg down. the move up from June is a corrective pattern, CORRECTIVE so new lows will be made.

  • Ram Pathak
    Ram Pathak Hace 10 días +1

    I am hoping a folloup candle being optimistic however its look like a throwback candle before going downward. If that happens we may see atleast 61.8% down fall from the neckline. Horrible time for bulls!

  • How Kam Chiong
    How Kam Chiong Hace 10 días

    Definitely one day the market will rebound and go up

  • ming khor
    ming khor Hace 10 días

    Thanks Adam, waiting for your video for quite sometimes. Still worried about Wednesday and Thursday what exactly Powell will announce. Can Adam say something about it? What do you think he will said

  • D Banka
    D Banka Hace 9 días

    Enjoy your analysis….great insights

  • Alex Harrison
    Alex Harrison Hace 10 días

    Like your analysis as always Mr Khoo, but ' 'rents are falling'' really? Sure doesn't feel that way.

  • 126 M. Aslam
    126 M. Aslam Hace 10 días

    Thanks yours efforts for us...❤️

  • Turtle Trader 🐢
    Turtle Trader 🐢 Hace 9 días

    Great informative video! Thansk for sharing your analysis. Would you give an update on your portfolio. I am interested that how your portfolio is doing in these circumstances.

  • Kenny Tan
    Kenny Tan Hace 10 días

    always waiting for Adam's video to give me clarity on the market. He is the best mentor to go to in terms of analysing the market.